What You Need To Know About Nigeria's Inflation: is it really cooling or just shifting

Nigeria’s inflation numbers have been making headlines for the right reasons. In July 2025, the National Bureau of Statistics reported inflation at 21.88%, down from 22.22% in June. This marks four straight months of decline and the lowest rate since early 2023. At first glance, it looks like the government’s tough reforms and the Central Bank’s tight policies are finally working.

But a deeper look shows that this “cooling” inflation may not be telling the whole story.

On the positive side, core inflation (which strips out food and energy prices) has also slowed, showing that monetary tightening is having an effect. The Central Bank’s decision to keep interest rates high at 27.5% is beginning to tame price growth, while international observers, including the IMF, have praised Nigeria for reforms in foreign exchange, subsidy removal, and fiscal discipline. These steps even led to a credit rating upgrade, signaling better investor confidence.

Yet, for the average Nigerian, the story is very different. Food inflation is still rising, climbing to 22.74% in July. Market visits tell the real story: the price of rice, beans, garri, and tomatoes is still biting hard. A recent survey showed that the cost of preparing a pot of jollof rice has jumped by over 150% since 2023, now consuming nearly 40% of the new minimum wage. For many families, this isn’t cooling, it’s shifting, with food carrying the heaviest burden.

Part of the “drop” in inflation comes from a rebasing of the consumer price index (CPI) earlier this year. This technical change made inflation readings look lower, but it hasn’t changed the reality of high costs for households.

The reality talk is this, while inflation may be cooling statistically, Nigerians are still groaning under the weight of food and transport costs. Without targeted solutions like stronger agricultural production, better supply chains, and social safety nets, the average person won’t feel the relief.

On paper, inflation is cooling. But in reality, for millions of Nigerians, it has only shifted and the cost of living crisis remains.